Risk Of An Exchange Rate Part 1

By in Intro to Forex on June 27, 2020

The risk of an exchange rate is a consequence of constant change in the markets of the world of supply and demand on the currency which is in circulation. The open position is subject to changes of the price during all time of its existence.


The most popular measures of deduction of possible losses in reasonable limits are position limitation (position limit) and limitation of losses (loss limit).

At position limitation establish the maximum volume of certain currency which the trader permits to trade for the given time.

Limitation of losses is the measure directed on minimization of losses of the trader, performed by means of level installation stop-loss at position opening.

Risk of discount rate

For discount rate risk minimization establish limits for the general size of discrepancies. The general approach consists in dividing the discrepancies based on periods of validity of contracts, on such which are connected with contracts with periods of validity more or less than six months. All discrepancies are brought in computer system for calculation of positions on expiry dates of contracts, losses and profits. For forecasting of any changes which can affect situation with in discount rates it is necessary to trace constantly.

Risk of credit status

The risk of credit status is connected with danger of failure to carry out of treaty obligations on payment of an open currency position owing to free or involuntary actions of the second party. In the presence of such fears trade occurs in the form of compulsory transactions about what all traders agree with clearinghouse.

Following forms of risk of credit status are known:

* Risk of compensation (Replacement risk) which arises when clients of unsuccessfully working banks are endangered not to receive compensation from bank at balancing of the personal account.

* Geographical risk which arises because of different time zones on different continents. For this reason the currency can be on sale central banks of the different countries at the different price at various times day. In the beginning of world trading day the Australian and New Zealand dollars, then Japanese yen, European currency and the last – US dollar are on sale. Therefore can occur, for example, premature payments advantage of the party which intends to declare soon bankruptcy or it will be soon declared by insolvent.

Risk of credit status for the currencies traded on organized markets; minimize provision of credit status of clients. Commercial and investment banks, trading companies and clients of banks should trace a financial solvency of the partners carefully. Along with market value of currency portfolios participants of transactions, in order to avoid risk, should estimate as well the potential cost. The last can be executed, having spent the likelihood forecast for all time of action of open positions.

* Risk of the country. The risk of the country is connected with regular intervention of the government on behalf of exchequer and credit body in Forex work. Such intervention in currency transactions is still widespread. Traders should understand it and be able to consider possible administrative restrictions.

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