Psychological Preparation Of The Trader: Probabilities In Trade Part 1
You are valid when you think categories of probabilities. Probabilities give us possibilities. Without possibility we simply risk at random. And good luck won’t precede without construction a bias to it. We should create our own good luck. How should we do it? We think categories of probabilities and we develop the approach in the analysis and trade in the market which places probabilities in conformity with our trade.
Then, probabilities aren’t certainties. Probabilities, simply, most likely, will occur. And still we should think categories of probabilities. Why? Because, it is everything that we have.
We could address to psychics. We could address to astrology. We could address to divine intervention. Our trade is or in hands of destiny, god, guesses, or probabilities. I prefer probabilities. Even if they aren’t always sufficient are probable. “Not always” is a keyword. Models arise, but not always. Systems work, but not always. Fundamental factors dictate the price, but not always.
Relax. If it was always game, it would be finished. There is no such thing as tomorrow’s magazine “Wall Street” today. For this reason trade on the insider information is a crime. The insider information predicts, but not always. Even the crime doesn’t give complete confidence.
What can we make? To accept that we have. To think categories of probabilities and to act according to them. Allow probabilities to be sufficient for you. Moreover – be grateful for them. Probabilities, eventually are probable.
Successful traders think categories of probabilities. They put themselves in conformity with probabilities. They divide them. Low probable. Quite probable. Highly probable. On highly probable transaction they risk more than on low probable trade. It where their management of money or a choice of the size of a position works.
We should accept our restrictions and restrictions of our craft and art. To us it should be comfortable with approximate predictions and interpretations. We should trust a board of probabilities. Then we can go that is now and to trust probable predictability of our methods.
Successful traders behave out of troubles, thinking categories of probabilities. If you know that the transaction has probability to make money, you will go forward and execute it in a corresponding manner. Why it would be not present? It possibly is going to bring money.
On the other hand, if you know that trade is only probability, you will put the protective stop warrant. As it only is probable, you remember other possibilities. It can be the losing transaction. Therefore, you protect yourselves.
Probabilities hold you in the balanced psychological condition. The reflection categories of probabilities are the complete antithesis to reflections of categories of certainties. Remember that there are no certainties in trade. Thinking categories of probabilities you hold the perception pure to estimate contradicting indicators or the information. Clearness of perception holds you in contact to the present validity. You won’t tell to yourselves hypnotic stories that should happen or is going to happen. There is no place for self-deception.
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