Does Seasonal Financial Trading Actually Work?
Many of us are curious as to how and why the markets move as they do. Some so called experts will claim you can never beat the markets as they are purely random.
However is this really true? Are they really saying that the financial markets are not influenced by classic human behaviour. The markets after all are not themselves computer driven, they may of course be automated for trade entries and exits but at the end of the day it is still a human that will make the decision to buy or sell a particular market. And as we know all humans are prone to making decisions based on greed and fear.
Of course the major institutions play a major part in making markets move in one direction or another simply by the amount they move into a market whether it be a selection of stocks and shares or other alternatives. The times when the institutions or big money players move their money into and out of any market can on many occasions be very easy to see and is often what we would term seasonal.
Some very interesting studies have been carried out over the years into so called seasonal trading.
Seasonal trading studies the movements of any market and attempts to derive trends from those movements sometimes on a daily, weekly monthly, quarterly or even yearly basis. However is there anything really in this analysis?
From the examples we have seen we would have to say yes. From studying virtually any market it is quite easy to see some clear and repeated trends from the pre Christmas rises seen in many indices from October up to the end of December through to Commodities being bought and sold at key times in the year.
So if there is all this evidence of seasonal movements why doesn’t everyone use it?
Well simply because it is just another tool for a trader to use and many traders have a fixed idea in their own minds as to what works and what doesn’t.
Many traders only trade the Forex market believing that it is the only market to trade. Others may like to trade indices like the FTSE100 or Dow Jones. Others love to trade stocks or shares and some base there decisions on fundamentals or technical analysis and don’t actually care that much what market or company they are trading.
So you can see very quickly with so much information out there, that it’s not surprising why seasonal trading isn’t given much air time. All we would say is take a look yourself and make your own mind up. You maybe pleasantly surprised what you find.
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